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CHAPTER 20 - RELATIVE-VALUE METHODOLOGIE... > II. CREDIT RELATIVE-VALUE ANALYSIS

II. CREDIT RELATIVE-VALUE ANALYSIS

Credit portfolio management represents a major subset of the multi-asset global portfolio management process illustrated in Exhibit 3. After setting the currency allocation (in this case, dollars were selected for illustration convenience) and distribution among fixed-income asset classes, bond managers are still left with a lengthy list of questions to construct an optimal credit portfolio. Some examples are:
• Should U.S. investors add U.S. dollar-denominated bonds of non-U.S. issuers?
• Should central banks add high-quality euro-denominated corporate bonds to their reserve holdings?
• Should LIBOR-funded London-based portfolio managers buy fixed-rate U.S. industrial paper and swap into floating-rate notes?
• Should Japanese mutual funds own euro-denominated telecommunications debt, swapped back into dollars or yen using currency swaps?
• Should U.S. insurers buy perpetual floaters (i.e., floaters without a maturity date) issued by British banks and swap back into fixed-rate coupons in dollars using a currency/interest rate swap?
• When should investors reduce their allocation to the credit sector and increase allocation to governments, pursue a “strategic upgrade trade” (sell Baa/BBBs and buy higher-rated Aa/AA credit debt), rotate from industrials into utilities, switch from consumer cyclicals to non-cyclicals, overweight airlines and underweight telephones, or deploy a credit derivative314 (e.g., short the high-yield index or reduce a large exposure to a single issuer by selling an issuer-specific credit default swap) to hedge their portfolios?
EXHIBIT 1 Rolling 5-Year U.S. Investment-Grade Index Exces Return* (bp) January 1926 through December 31, 2003
Source: Data scries from Ibbotson Associates prior to August 1988. Lehman Broches data thereafter
459
EXHIBIT 2 U.S. Credit 5-Year Rolling Sharpe Ratio: July 1993 through December 31, 2003
Source: Lehman Brothers U.S. Investment-Grade Credit Index
460
EXHIBIT 3 Fixed Income Portfolio Management Process
461

  

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