Free Trial

Safari Books Online is a digital library providing on-demand subscription access to thousands of learning resources.

  • Create BookmarkCreate Bookmark
  • Create Note or TagCreate Note or Tag
  • PrintPrint
Share this Page URL
Help

Chapter 11: Evaluate all the relevant im... > Select an appropriate subset of sour...

Select an appropriate subset of sources

As indicated in Chapter 10, it may be important to start with one or more subsets of sources of uncertainty and option choices which are interesting enough, and sufficiently familiar to all those involved, to provide a useful basis for learning. At this point it may also be important to throw light on a pressing decision. Alternatively, it may be important to provide those contributing to the PUMP with results of immediate use to them, to show them an early return for the effort they have invested in the analysis process.

As explained in Chapter 7, for offshore North Sea project risk analyses it was often useful to start with the core source of uncertainty in the most uncertain activity – weather uncertainty in the pipe-laying activity. The effect of weather on the pipe-laying schedule was modelled as a semi-Markov process. The calculation started with the state of the system when pipe laying begins (no pipe laid). A progress probability distribution for the first time period was applied to this initial state to define the possible states of the system at the start of the second time period. A progress probability distribution was then applied to this state distribution to define the possible states of the system at the start of the third time period, and s....


  

You are currently reading a PREVIEW of this book.

                                                                                                                    

Get instant access to over $1 million worth of books and videos.

  

Start a Free 10-Day Trial


  
  • Safari Books Online
  • Create BookmarkCreate Bookmark
  • Create Note or TagCreate Note or Tag
  • PrintPrint