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Part I: Setting the scene > Chapter 2: Uncertainty, risk and opportunity

Chapter 2

Uncertainty, risk and opportunity

An optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty, a pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity.

—Sir Winston Churchill

This chapter explores the implications of distinguishing between risk and opportunity from an uncertainty management perspective, building on the Chapter 1 view of uncertainty in and around projects. This chapter’s starting point is contexts when quantification of uncertainty using probability distributions facilitates an effective appreciation and treatment of both risk and opportunity in relation to underlying uncertainty – but objectives that do not lend themselves to quantification are considered later.

Chapter 1 began with very simple definitions for uncertainty, risk and opportunity:


  

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