CASE STUDIES

Probabilities—Not Ones and Zeros

Montserrat is an island in the Caribbean West Indies that covers just 39 square miles. Its air and water temperatures rarely fall below 78 degrees Fahrenheit. With beautiful mountains, lush rain forests, and groves of mangoes, bananas, and coconuts, it is easy to call Montserrat a paradise. Unfortunately, Montserrat also is home to the Soufriere Hills Volcano, which first erupted in 1995 and continues to be a threat today. Approximately two-thirds of the island is now uninhabitable, and Montserrat's population has fallen to 4,000 from 11,000 since 1995. In 1997, 20 people perished and the island's economy, which relies mainly on tourism, has suffered. A recording studio owned by former Beatles producer George Martin allowed rock stars like....