The growth in China and India should drive the demand for energy significantly up, as we have already illustrated when talking about the “long/short equity strategy on emerging markets” in Chapter 4.
Recently, China’s massive growth propelled the price of many raw materials up, oil in particular. Whether the Chinese growth is sustainable is still uncertain, and this should suggest a conservative attitude with regard to the persistency of this trend. The worst scenario for this strategy is the onset of a global recession, which would undermine the prices of raw materials. During a time of recession, the demand for natural resources is expected to remain rather low and sluggish, and the performance of commodities is expected to turn negative.
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