As always, the main strategy is to find ways to predict what a potentially market-moving number will be before it is released. Because the payrolls figure is such an accurate indicator of economic activity, for instance, economists and traders try to get ahead of the curve by forecasting it. Many keep a journal by their desks, recording events they come across in their daily reading that could influence employment. Unexpected disruptions such as labor strikes, mass layoffs, and natural disasters like hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and blizzards can greatly alter the number of workers in a given month.
Economists also watch a number of alternative indicators for evidence to support or refute the developments suggested by data in the employment report. One of these alternative indicators is the index of monthly layoff announcements made by companies. The index, compiled by the employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas, measures intended dismissals rather than actual firings. It is thus something of a leading indicator. It gives economists an insight into industries that may be experiencing difficulties. Movements in the index are also helpful in gauging the bigger picture contained in the BLS employment report. That is, increases in the number of layoff announcements usually portend a softer payroll picture, whereas a decl....
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