The basic trading strategy related to the M3 survey data involves identifying potential turning points in demand for U.S. manufactured goods and related products. Obviously, the greater the volume of shipments, the greater the strength of current demand. For future demand, the reasoning is similar: the higher the number of new orders for goods, the greater the probability of strong activity down the road; the lower the number, the bleaker the outlook. Particularly potent in predicting the future are manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials, and for nondefense capital goods. These components have proved so accurate that the Conference Board includes them in its index of leading economic indicators. Remember, however, that ....