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6. Bayesian Statistics: Get past first b... > New information can change your base...

New information can change your base rate

When you got your first test results back, you used as your base rate the incidence in the population of everybody for lizard flu.

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But you learned from the test that your probability of having lizard flu is higher than the base rate. That probability is your new base rate, because now you’re part of the group of people who’ve tested positively.

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Let’s hurry up and run Bayes’ rule again...

Sharpen your pencil

Using the new test and your revised base rate, let’s calculate the probability that you have lizard flu given your results.

Advanced Lizard flu diagnostic test

Accuracy analysis

If someone has lizard flu, the probability that the test returns positive for it is 99 percent.

If someone doesn’t have lizard flu, the probability that the test returns positive for it is 1 percent.


  

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