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Chapter 6. Competing Risks > ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO MULTIPLE EVENT TYPES

ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO MULTIPLE EVENT TYPES

Conditional Processes

The competing risks approach presumes that each event type has its own hazard model that governs both the occurrence and timing of events of that type. The appropriate imagery is one of independent causal mechanisms operating in parallel. Whichever type of event happens first, the individual is then no longer at risk of the other types.

This is clearly a defensible way of thinking about deaths due to natural causes, on the one hand, and forcible removal from power, on the other. It may not be so sensible, however, for the distinction between constitutional exits and nonconstitutional exits. We might imagine that a leader will stay in power as long as his popularity with key groups stays sufficiently high. When that popularity drops below a certain point, pressures will build for his removal. How he is removed is another question, and the answer depends on such things as the constitutional mechanisms that are available and the cultural traditions of the country. In this way of thinking about things, we have one mechanism governing the timing of events and another distinct mechanism determining the type of event, given that an event occurs.


  

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