2. Expectations and Mindfulness

If you want to manage the unexpected, you have to understand, first, how expectations work and, second, how to engage them mindfully. Those two topics are the focus of this chapter. The basic argument is that expectations are built into organizational roles, routines, and strategies. These expectations create the orderliness and predictability that we count on when we organize. Expectations, however, are a mixed blessing because they create blind spots. Blind spots sometimes take the form of belated recognition of unexpected, threatening events. And frequently blind spots get larger simply because we do a biased search for evidence that confirms the accuracy of our original expectations. The problem with blind spots is that they often conceal small errors that are getting bigger and can produce disabling brutal audits. To counteract these blind spots, organizations try to develop a greater awareness of discriminatory detail. This enriched awareness, which we call mindfulness, uncovers early signs that expectations are inadequate, that unexpected events are unfolding, and that recovery needs to be implemented. Recovery requires updating both of one’s understanding of what is happening and of the lines of action that were tied to the earlier expectations.

The close ties among the expected, the unexpected, and mindful organizing are clearly visible in the resilient performance of flight operations on the deck of an aircraft carrier. Aircraft carriers have been a prototype of high reliability systems almost from the beginning.^[1] Therefore, we use carriers as our example throughout this chapter for historical reasons as well as because their practices transfer readily to other settings such as health care.