270 index Committee on the Social and Economic Impact of Pathological Gambling, 193 conditioning, 191­93 cons, 99­100, 179­81 Cotton, Charles, 36 counterfeiting, 99­100 crap out, 224 craps, 46­47, 54, 204, 257n2; description of, 220; expectation and, 101, 105; fair- ness and, 148­49; hazard and, 145­46; historical perspective and, 9, 17; hot hands and, 205­6; house edge and, 150­51; odds of, 146­49; policy shops and, 143; shooter and, 146; skill and, 131, 143­49 credit- default swaps, 57, 64, 66­71, 224 crew, 58­59, 225 cumulative outcomes, 95, 126; coins and, 88­90, 93­94; frequency distribution and, 104­15; Galton board and, 88­92, 215­16; notation for, 101­2; roulette and, 97­98; standard normal curve and, 110­15; St. Petersburg paradox and, 93­94, 96­97, 256n13 Cutler, Jerry, 157­58 Dandalos, Nick "The Greek," 182, 204 Deal or No Deal (TV show), xvi; behavioral analysis and, 168­76; house money effect and, 172, 176; memory and, 171; odds of, 171­76; rules of, 171­72; safety shields and, 176 dealer's up card, 225 de Carcavi, Pierre, 29 de Moivre, Abraham, 109, 128­29 de Montmort, Pierre Rémond, 30 dice, 46, 58, 262n33; astragals and, 5­7, 122­23, 236; Augustus and, 9; books on, 9­10; boxcars and, 30, 215; Caligula and, 9; casinos and, 38­39 (see also casinos); coffeehouses and, 38; combi- nations and, 24­25; crooked, 34, 77­79, 132; cubic, 12; expectation and, 103, 108; fair, 5­7, 12, 25, 30, 73, 77­78, 234; Galileo and, 24­25; gambler's psyche and, 197­98; God and, 75; historical perspective on, 5­12, 15, 17; hot hands and, 205­6; idealized model of, 77­78; illusion of luck and, 20, 215­16; initial position and, 91; law of large numbers and, 23, 118, 124­30; lots and, xv, 6­8, 212; materials of, 12; modern, 8; mystery of, 20; Nero and, 9; notation for, 101­3; odds in, 144­45; Pascal's tri- angle and, 31­32, 105; perfect certainty and, 77­79; probability and, 8, 75­79, 95; professional players and, 20, 23­25, 29­30, 34; psychology and, 77; shooter and, 146­47, 149, 154, 206, 220, 226; skill and, 131­32, 146, 151­54; snake eyes and, 23, 30, 79; spread of, 7­8; sym- metry and, 103. See also specific game Doctrine of Chances, The (de Moivre), 109 dog racing, 198, 209 Dostoyevsky, Fyodor, 33, 43­44, behav- ioral analysis and, 163­64, 170, 183, 186­89, 197, 202­4; finances of, 188­89; Frank and, 188; gambling of, 188­89 double- or-nothing ventures, 94 draw, 225 drop, 225 du Camp, Maxime, 83 dunners, 28, 225 early win hypothesis, 192 economic issues: bank closures and, 64­65; casino house edge and, 94­95, 138, 150­52; commodities prices and, 62­63; credit­default swaps and, 57, 64, 66­71, 224; depression forecasting and, 65; earning power and, 62; free market capitalism and, 141; government bail- outs and, 62, 64, 66; Great Depression and, 65, 70, 157; inflation and, 62­63; minimum wage and, 62; stock market crisis of 2008 and, 59­71 ego, 185 Eliot, George, 46, 168­69 e-mail scams, 179­81 equations: coin runs, 97; combina- tions, 14, 230­32; craps odds, 146­48; expectation, 232; horse racing odds, 139­40; law of large numbers, 119­23, 128, 227­28; lottery odds, 136; mean, 233; Pascal's triangle, 32; poker odds, 133­34; roulette runs, 105­6; slots odds, 150; standard deviation, 122­23, 234; standard normal curve, 110­11, 235; sum of probabilities, 107