CONTINGENCY AND MARKETS Frequency (%) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Dec 1976 Sep 1978 Oct 1977 Aug 1978 June 1979 Apr 1980 Feb 1981 Fig. .. Pre- and post-break performance of the fundamental model fundamentals with different influences drives the exchange rate. Unsurprisingly, the forecasting error of the estimated model prior