3.12 When will GSM be Switched Off ?

It has been shown in this chapter that GSM-based GPRS and EDGE have difficulty keeping up with capacity enhancements of B3G networks and subscriber demands. Thus, switching off GSM networks and using the capacity in the 900 and 1800 MHz band for B3G networks would increase total capacity without requiring additional spectrum. It is expected that this will be slowly done over time as the specification of B3G network technologies such as HSPA and LTE now also allows operation in these frequency bands.

Only a few years ago, most industry observers were predicting a rapid decline of GSM networks once 3G networks were in place. GSM had just celebrated its tenth birthday in terms of live network deployments and UMTS was already at the doorstep. Looking at lifetimes of analog wireless systems, it seemed certain that in another 10 years (2012) GSM would be a thing of the past. Today, 2012 is just a few years away and it is quite certain that GSM will be used much beyond then, even in countries where B3G networks have been rolled out. This surprising development has several causes: