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Do you have a margin for error? Mountain climbers know that the real trick is not getting to the summit but getting back down safely. When making a major decision, particularly a risky one, you need to have a plan to make your way back if it doesn’t work out.
This was the difference between Ernest Shackleton and Robert Falcon Scott in their journeys to the South Pole. In 1909, Shackleton had crossed the Antarctic to within 97 miles of the pole. He had made it farthest south and would have been the first person to reach the pole if he had continued. He might have reached the pole, but he knew he couldn’t bring his crew safely back. As he looked at his men, many suffering already from the ravages of cold and insufficient diet, he made the heartbreaking decision to turn around. He and all his men made it back safely.