Free Trial

Safari Books Online is a digital library providing on-demand subscription access to thousands of learning resources.


  • Create BookmarkCreate Bookmark
  • Create Note or TagCreate Note or Tag
  • PrintPrint
Share this Page URL
Help

Chapter 19. Cycles > Translation

Translation

The reason that we study lows in cycle analysis is because longer and shorter cycles tend to synchronize at lows. Peaks, on the other hand, almost never synchronize. Peaks, ideally, should occur at the halfway period of the cycle. A 20-day cycle, for example, should have a peak 10 days from its last low. This rarely occurs. Peaks can occur earlier or later than the halfway point. Their location away from the center point is called translation. A right translation in a cycle is when the peak is beyond the halfway point, and a left translation is when the cycle peak occurs before the halfway point. Usually, the underlying trend from a longer cycle determines the amount of translation in the shorter cycle. In Chapter 12, “Trends—The Basics,” we noticed that trend directions determined the shape of the corrective trends. In an uptrend, for example, the upward trends were long and the corrections were short. These were translating right because the peaks were beyond the halfway point between the lows. If the peak had occurred at the halfway point, we would be suspicious about the continuation of the upward trend. Because cycles are nested and synchronous, the shorter cycle is dominated by the trend of the next longer cycle.

Again, let us look at Figure 19.1. The first marked low (in early February) is both a 20-day and a higher order cycle low. From that point on for more than two cycles, the trend is sharply upward. This upward strength of the longer cycle is influencing where the peak for the first, second, and third 20-day cycles will occur. As it is, the peak for the first cycle is past the midpoint of the 20-week cycle period. In the second 20-day cycle, the peak is even farther to the right of its midpoint, suggesting that the trend is becoming even steeper. This movement of the actual peak beyond the midpoint of the cycle is called right translation and is characteristic of all peaks when dominated by the strength of a longer, rising trend.


  

You are currently reading a PREVIEW of this book.

                                                                                                                    

Get instant access to over $1 million worth of books and videos.

  

Start a Free Trial


  
  • Safari Books Online
  • Create BookmarkCreate Bookmark
  • Create Note or TagCreate Note or Tag
  • PrintPrint