Forget About Relying on Investment Books with Outrageous Titles

Do you remember the book that came out on November 14, 2000, titled Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market, by James K. Glassman and Kevin A. Hassett? They predicted that the Dow would reach that level in three to ten years. Well, that didn’t happen, did it? In the authors’ media appearances, I understand that they were saying things such as “the time to get in the market is now and don’t be a fool and miss this great opportunity to invest.” Unfortunately, some investors heeded their advice and lost a bundle.

Another more outrageous book, published on June 26, 1999, titled Dow 40,000: Strategies for Profiting from the Greatest Bull Market in History, by David Elias, slightly missed the mark as well. He predicted that the Dow would achieve 40,000 by 2016. He still has a shot at being right, but the probability is almost nil. After hitting 11,125.13 on April 12, 2000, the Dow didn’t reach that level again until early 2006. After hitting an all-time peak of 14,164.53 on October 9, 2007, the Dow cratered to 6547.05 on March 9, 2009, and touched 10,500 as of December 1, 2009. But it is still 25.9% lower than its 2007 high.