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5. Decision Making > 44. Foresee Important Problems

Foresee Important Problems

Learn to foresee the most significant problems you’ll face by multiplying the probability of an event by its impact on human-friendly seven-point scales. The result is a final estimate of importance on a scale of 0 to 100.

This decision-making hack is similar to the technique known as bulletproofing 1 but with a much finer resolution and ability to compare concerns. The idea of bulletproofing is to do "negative brainstorming” about all the things that could possibly go wrong with a project, and then to rank them by priority on a chart labeled “Minor problem” and “Major problem” on one axis, and “Unlikely” and “Very likely” on the other axis. Figure 5-1 ranks four things that could go wrong for an average smoker.


  

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